Argument-based Methods for Decision-making Under Deep Uncertainty
Project Description
Due to its high demands on information input, traditional decision theory is inadequate to deal with many real-life situations. If, for instance, probabilities or values are undetermined, the standard method of maximizing expected values cannot be used. The difficulties are aggravated if further information is lacking or uncertain, for instance information about what options are available and what their potential consequences may be. However, under such conditions, methods from philosophical analysis and in particular argumentation analysis can be used to systematize our deliberations. Such methods are also helpful if the framing of the decision problem is contested. The argumentative turn in policy analysis is a widened rationality approach that scrutinises inferences from what is known and what is unknown in order to substantiate decision-supporting deliberations. It includes and recognises the normative components of decisions and makes them explicit to help finding reasonable decisions with democratic legitimacy.
Contact
Publications
- Hansson S. O., Hirsch Hadorn G. (eds). 2016. The Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis. Reasoning about uncertainty. Cham: Springer. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-30549-3.
- Hirsch Hadorn G., Brun G., Soliva C., Stenke A., Peter T. 2015. Decision strategies for policy decisions under uncertainties: The case of mitigation measures addressing methane emissions from ruminants. Environmental Science & Policy 52, 110-119. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2015.05.011.
- Adler C. E., Hirsch Hadorn G. 2014. The IPCC and treatment of uncertainties: topics and sources of dissensus. WIREs Climate Change 5/5, 663–676. Open Access. doi: 10.1002/wcc.297.